Advanced methods for the quantitative assessment of the safety of decarbonization technologies

Climate change necessitates urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with blue hydrogen emerging as a pivotal solution in the global energy transition. By utilizing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to prevent CO₂ emissions and liquid hydrogen (LH₂) systems for efficient storage and transport, blue hydrogen bridges the reliance on fossil fuels and the adoption of renewable energy. However, these technologies pose significant safety challenges, including CO₂ toxicity, material erosion, cold embrittlement, cold burns, reduced seawater pH, LH₂ flammability, explosiveness, and risks from extreme cold. Addressing these risks is essential for the secure deployment and public acceptance of blue hydrogen technologies. This PhD thesis aims to enhance the understanding of safety in blue hydrogen technologies, focusing on accident scenarios in CCS and LH₂ facilities. It evaluates safety challenges, investigates the potential and limitations of existing risk management approaches, and develops advanced methods for assessing safety, reliability, and resilience. Key contributions include assessing inherent safety within blue hydrogen value chains, establishing the state of the art in risk assessment for CCS value chains, analyzing high-pressure CO₂ release consequences, evaluating experimental data on LH₂ releases, assessing the performance of safety barriers in LH₂ bunkering systems, exploring Natech threats and human errors in CCS and LH₂ facilities, and developing resilience models in the event of escalation scenarios triggered by domino effects. The study identifies gaps in existing quantitative risk assessment models and demonstrates the benefits of integrating probabilistic approaches and innovative strategies. It also highlights the importance of resilience and human reliability for thorough safety evaluations. Practical methodologies were tested through real-world case studies, offering valuable insights into offshore CCS systems and LH₂ handling. The findings provide a robust framework for enhancing safety in blue hydrogen technologies and inform future research directions, paving the way for a sustainable and secure energy transition.