Extension of Quantitative Risk Assessment to the Analysis of External Hazard Factors in the Chemical and Process Industry

The PhD research project is aimed at developing and applying an innovative framework toward Risk Assessment of cascading events within the chemical and process industry, addressing both domino and security-based events. Cascading events are catastrophic accidents, triggered by external hazard factors, including safety-based (i.e., domino) and security-based events. In the chemical industry domain, barriers provide a crucial role for the prevention, control and mitigation of cascading events. Therefore, it is necessary to apply innovative techniques, aimed at the evaluation of barriers technical performance and at their optimal economic allocation, to be inserted within Quantitative Risk Assessment (i.e., QRA). Concerning barriers technical performance, the research activity is aimed at applying Bayesian Networks to safety barriers performance assessment, regarding domino events. Starting from a conventional approach, preliminary applications have been aimed at implementing a Bayesian approach to barriers performance assessment concerning major accidents. Therefore, the approach has been extended to domino accident analysis, in purpose to evaluate the effect of barriers introduction within modelling. The case studies demonstrated that the application of a Bayesian approach provides a very accurate barriers performance assessment within QRA, with reference to external hazard factors driven accidents (i.e., domino events), offering a realistic risk picture. Concerning barriers optimal economic allocation, the research activity is aimed at developing and applying an original economic model for the prevention of security-based cascading events. The model includes security upgrades performance and costs assessment, evaluation of benefits and definition of threat and vulnerability probabilities. The application of economic techniques, by means of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, enables barriers optimal allocation within budgets constraints. Validation of the model is provided by application to relevant case studies. Therefore, the model enables defining rational criteria for barriers optimal selection and allocation and its outputs support the inclusion of security hazards within QRA, and related decision-making.