Landslide susceptibility in the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a project launched by the Chinese Government whose main goal is to connect more than 65 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania developing infrastructures and facilities. To support the prevention or mitigation of landslide hazards, which may affect the mainland infrastructures of BRI, a landslide susceptibility analysis in the countries involved has been carried out. Due to the large study area, the analysis has been carried out using a multi-scale approach which consists of mapping susceptibility firstly at continental scale, and then at national scale. The study area selected for the continental assessment is the south-Asia, where a pixel-based landslide susceptibility map has been carried out using the Weight of Evidence method and validated by Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Then, we selected the regions of west Tajikistan and north-east India to be investigated at national scale. Data scarcity is a common condition for many countries involved into the Initiative. Therefore in addition to the landslide susceptibility assessment of west Tajikistan, which has been conducted using a Generalized Additive Model and validated by ROC curves, we have examined, in the same study area, the effect of incomplete landslide dataset on the prediction capacity of statistical models. The entire PhD research activity has been conducted using only open data and open-source software. In this context, to support the analysis of the last years an open-source plugin for QGIS has been implemented. The SZ-tool allows the user to make susceptibility assessments from the data preprocessing, susceptibility mapping, to the final classification. All the output data of the analysis conducted are freely available and downloadable. This text describes the research activity of the last three years. Each chapter reports the text of the articles published in international scientific journal during the PhD.