Quantitative approach on tourism dynamics in light of climate change and extreme weather events

Based on three quantitative studies, this thesis measures and forecasts the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on tourism demand in Italy. The first paper estimates four augmented tourism demand functions with climatic variables for each season. It finds that both climate and economic factors, particularly GDP and exchange rates, are key determinants. The analysis highlights non-linear effects of climate, suggesting its influence may surpass economic factors if warming continues. It concludes that public governance and operators must address climate impacts now, recommending product innovation and a remodeling of supply into new high and low seasons to maintain the industry's high added value. The second paper investigates long-term climate change impacts on Italian tourism demand up to 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Winter tourism is projected to decline initially but may recover through product diversification, while spring is forecasted to benefit consistently. These findings project climate change as a structural driver reshaping seasonality, potentially reducing the summer peak. The study integrates physical climate variables into econometric forecasting, offering policy-relevant insights for enhancing sector resilience and sustainability. Using daily data, the third paper examines the impact of the May 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods on tourism. While Rimini suffered the largest absolute losses, smaller provinces like Ravenna experienced steeper relative declines, revealing greater vulnerability. Projections show short-duration heavy rainfall likelihood increases significantly with warming. This analysis quantifies climate-related economic risk, highlighting adaptation value for vulnerable tourism destinations. This thesis's primary contribution is directly integrating raw physical climate data from state-of-the-art sources like ERA5 and EURO-CORDEX into econometric models, paving a new way for studies in this field. Policy implications are significant, offering evidence to inform targeted adaptation strategies, highlight mitigation urgency, and enhance long-term resilience of the Italian tourism economy and wider community.