Tunisia’s migration politics and the stabilisation of authoritarian regime: financial resources, legitimation, and repression in the context of European border externalisation

This dissertation examines how migration politics have contributed to the stabilisation of Tunisia’s authoritarian regime under President Kaïs Saïed in the context of intensified European border externalisation. It argues that irregular migration governance—far from being a neutral policy domain—has become a strategic tool for regime consolidation, operating through three interrelated pillars: financial resources, legitimation, and repression. Drawing on and adapting Gerschewski’s framework of authoritarian stability, the study replaces the classical pillar of co-optation with financial resources, highlighting the centrality of European migration-linked funding in reinforcing Tunisia’s security apparatus and political autonomy. The thesis is structured around three core articles. The first traces the evolution of Tunisia’s migration diplomacy and shows how the regime strategically leverages migration cooperation with the EU to extract financial and political support, while presenting Tunisia as both a stabilising partner and a victim of foreign interference. The second article explores the politicisation of immigration in domestic discourse, revealing how migration has been framed through conspiracy theories and anti-interference narratives to construct regime legitimacy and redefine national identity. The third article investigates how migration governance has enabled increased repression against both Sub-Saharan migrants and civil society actors, arguing that migration-related repression is not a byproduct but a key mechanism of authoritarian entrenchment. Methodologically, the dissertation is grounded in 18 months of fieldwork in Tunisia, including 29 interviews and extensive primary document analysis. It contributes to debates on migration diplomacy, authoritarian resilience, and EU externalisation policies by illustrating how migration politics and political regimes are co-constitutive. In doing so, it challenges static distinctions between democracy and autocracy, showing how transnational migration governance shapes and is shaped by authoritarian statecraft in contemporary Tunisia.