Risk assessment for climate adaptation taking into account nature-based solutions, geophysical processes and multidisciplinarity

The world is experiencing an escalating threat from Hydro-Meteorological Hazards (HMHs), resulting in Risks (HMRs) for territories, people, and ecosystems. Climate projections indicate the frequency and intensity of HMHs may further increase urging tangible strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Climate significantly influences societal policies and governance, depending on socio-economic and environmental conditions. In this context, risk assessment is an essential tool to analyze the world's complexity and implement proper countermeasures. The following Thesis proposes a novel holistic, yet predictive, framework for the assessment of HMRs. Contributions to HMRs are quantified as economic losses and carbon-dioxide emissions, and classified into six research fields, namely, healthcare, society, ecosystem, heritage, infrastructure, and agriculture. The framework is tested for a heat-wave event in the Metropolitan City of Bologna (Italy). The final output is expressed as a cost per day to aid policy decision-making processes. The framework integrates societal capacities to cope with HMHs through adaptation and mitigation measures. Promising measures include Nature-based Solutions (NbS) which aim to provide both human well-being and biodiversity benefits. The novel framework stands as a tool for the assessment of NbS effectiveness taking into account a library of indicators concerning environmental performance, risk reduction, and provision of co-benefits. The selection of indicators is based on previous NbS interventions, followed by the definition of an assessment methodology, and the selection of suitable modeling and monitoring techniques. The effectiveness may change during the NbS life cycle across the design, implementation, maintenance, monitoring, and restoration phases. An example is proposed for a sand dune in Lido di Volano (Ferrara, Italy). A formulation is proposed to estimate the long-term local impact of NbS interventions. In conclusion, the novel framework aims to be a valuable tool for climate adaptation through research analyses, the integration into early warning systems, and the definition of land-management strategies.