A multi-dimensional analysis of party competition: exploring the impact of multiple systemic crises on elections and on the process of government formation and termination in Southern Europe

Over the last two decades, two major events have harshly hit Europe, especially southern European member states: the 2008 European sovereign debt crisis and the ongoing refugee crisis. This study attempts to investigate how the interplay of these critical events influenced party competition dynamics especially in those countries that have been heavily exposed not only to the negative consequences of the economic crisis but also to increasing migratory flows. The thesis is cumulative, being comprised of four manuscripts, each one addressing a specific facet of party competition. Manuscript I traces the evolution of the changing structure of national party systems, highlighting the tendency towards an increased dimensionality of political spaces. Manuscript II focuses on parties’ electoral strategies investigating the incentives that encourage political actors to engage in mobilization strategies over immigration vis-a-vis socio-economic issues. The third and fourth manuscripts focus on the process of government formation and termination, respectively. Manuscript III shows that, in a political context characterized by the intensified role exerted by European institutions in domestic affairs, political parties are more likely to engage in negotiations over coalition agreements with political actors sharing similar positions on the European integration process. Manuscript IV highlights an indirect mechanism through which exogenous non-economic shocks, such as the one represented by the refugee crisis, can undermine cabinet survival by means of deteriorating the inter-party bargaining environment within a government. The dissertation aims to make a relevant contribution to the literature of party competition by advancing our comprehension on parties’ mutual interactions during critical circumstances. The study also contributes to the literature on government stability and demonstrates how parties’ ideological proximity on emerging salient issues enhances the likelihood that a given coalition will form and remain stable during the constitutional mandate.