Before It's Too Late: INGOs' Handling of Conflict Risk in South Sudan

What do international non-governmental organisations (INGOs) do before and during the escalation of conflicts? The academic literature primarily focuses on these organisations' behaviour during an evident crisis rather than on how they anticipate the escalation of conflicts, assess the situation in which they find themselves, and decide on strategies to cope with the possibility of upcoming violence. Such lopsided focus persists despite calls for INGOs to become more proactive in managing their programmes and their staff members' safety. Mindful of this imbalance, the present study provides a causal explanation of how decision-makers in INGOs anticipate and react to the risk of low-level violence escalating into full-blown conflicts. This thesis aims to explain these actors' behaviour by presenting it as a two�step process involving how INGOs conduct risk assessments and how they turn these assessments into decisions. The study performs a structured, focused comparison of seven INGOs operating in South Sudan before the so-called Juba Clashes of 7 July 2016. Based on an analytical framework of INGO decision�making stemming from political risk analysis, organisational decision-making theory and conflict studies literature, the study reconstructs decision-making via process-tracing combined with mixed methods of data collection.