Assessment of sea-level variability for the Emilia-Romagna coastal area in the framework of the Mediterranean Sea

Sea–level change is one of the ocean characteristics closely connected to climate change. Understanding its variation is essential since a large portion of the world’s population is located in low–lying locations. Two main techniques are employed to measure sea level: satellite altimetry and tide gauges. Satellite altimetry monitors sea–level relative to a geocentric reference, is unaffected by crustal processes and covers nearly the entire surface of the oceans since 1993. Conversely, tide gauges measure sea level at specific coastal locations and relative to a local ground benchmark, therefore are impacted by vertical land movements. In this study, the linear and non–linear geocentric and relative sea–level trends along the Emilia–Romagna coast (Northern Italy) have been analyzed over different periods. In order to assess the local sea–level variability, data from satellite altimetry and tide gauges have been compared over a common time interval (1993–2019), hence disentangling the contribute of vertical land movements. Non–linearity has been also evaluated at the broader scale of the Mediterranean Sea, in order to depict the main variability in geocentric sea–level trends from regional to sub–basin scale. Furthermore, the anthropogenic and natural influence at the river basin scale has been addressed, in order to shed light on the factors inducing the drastic reduction of riverine sediment supply to the Emilia–Romagna coast over the period 1920–2020. The findings of this analysis indicate that the sediment delivery reduction to the coast by rivers has been driven by several anthropogenic processes, acting on various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, the local absolute sea–level trend is far from linear and appear "contaminated" by the presence of natural oscillations that act at the multi–decadal, quasi–decadal and inter–annual scale, mainly driven by both large–scale climatic modes and variations in local oceanography.