Exploring the relationship between climate change and population dynamics in the Global North: a focus on human fertility

The implications of climate change are increasingly visible through its multifaceted effects, including the intensification of extreme temperatures and weather events. Adopting a demographic perspective, this dissertation examines how climate change relates to population dynamics, with a specific focus on fertility behaviours in high-income settings. The first chapter reviews how climate change intersects with core demographic processes—fertility, mortality, and migration—in countries of the Global North. Individuals’ exposure and capacity to cope with environmental shocks vary according to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The chapter discusses mechanisms through which climate change affects health and demographic outcomes. Chapters two and three present empirical analyses. The second chapter uses survey data collected in 2022 in five European countries (France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and United Kingdom) to analyse the prevalence of climate change-related motivations for not intending to have children in the near future, distinguishing between two concerns: the environmental impact of having a child and the potential consequences of climate change on future children’s well-being. Over half of respondents reported the latter concern, which was also linked to life-course and economic insecurity, such as unstable employment and being female. Both concerns were associated to experience of severe climate-related hazards. Building on this, the third chapter integrates longitudinal data from Understanding Society (2009–2023) with climate records in the UK. Monthly-level discrete-time event history models examine the relationship between exposure to heatwaves and floods and the likelihood of conception. Exposure to heatwaves appears strongly associated with reduced conception probabilities during months of exposure. Floods show a weaker yet still negative association in the six months following the event. Furthermore, environmental behaviours play a moderating role in the case of floods exposure. Overall, this dissertation provides evidence that climate change is also a demographic issue, influencing both fertility intentions and behaviours through multiple pathways.