Impact of climate change on human mortality patterns

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events pose a growing public health threat. Evidence consistently demonstrates that the mortality risks associated with weather and climate extremes are not uniformly distributed, reflecting substantial geographical and social disparities. This thesis investigates global and European patterns of mortality risks related to extreme weather events, emphasizing population heterogeneity, regional and social vulnerabilities. Specifically, the thesis advances current understanding by (1) systematically synthesizing global evidence on climate-related mortality, (2) empirically examining the determinants of temperature related mortality across Europe, and (3) projecting future mortality under varying climate and socioeconomic scenarios. In the first part, a systematic review of quantitative observational studies is conducted using Web of Science and Scopus, following PRISMA guidelines. The second study involves an empirical analysis of Eurostat sub-national mortality data for adults aged 65 and above across 30 European countries (2014–2023) based on Poisson fixed-effects regression. In the third study, future projections of temperature-related mortality outcomes for 28 European countries are performed using socioeconomic and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP–RCP) scenarios. Key findings from the systematic literature review highlights higher vulnerability among females, older adults, and socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. The empirical analysis focusing on Europe shows that, cold exposure remains a stronger determinant of mortality than heat in the continent, though extreme heat exerts greater effects in southern regions, underscoring the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies. Air pollution amplifies both heat- and cold-related mortality, while higher GDP per capita mitigates cold-related deaths. Future projections indicate that temperature-related mortality will decline in Northern Europe but increase markedly in Southern Europe, widening regional disparities toward the end of the century.