Geodetic strain rates and kinematic modeling across the central Mediterranean region

This thesis investigates the interseismic deformation across the central Mediterranean region and discusses its possible links to seismic hazard. The main text is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, I construct horizontal strain rate maps for Italy from a dense GNSS velocity dataset, using three different methodologies selected for being of increasing mathematical complexity. The advantages and drawbacks of each method are discussed, and differences among the strain rate maps are quantified. Optimal tuning of the parameters involved in each methodology produces mutually consistent high strain rate patterns and coherent principal strain rate directions. In the second chapter, I relate geodetic strain to independent seismicity along the Apennines using declustered catalogs. I demonstrate a strong spatial correlation and relationship between strain rates and seismicity rates. This relationship depends more on the independent catalog choices (and then the aftershock treatment) than on the specific strain rate map employed. Integrating variable seismogenic thickness suggests that tectonic moment rate exceeds seismic moment release in the Apennines, implying either aseismic deformation or biases in moment rate computation that warrant careful treatment in PSHA. Finally, in the third chapter, I develop a regional kinematic block model to estimate slip rates and interseismic coupling on highly seismogenic and tsunamigenic offshore structures, using a combined GNSS velocity field for the entire region. I discuss the resulting coupling patterns, present resolution tests that identify where coupling is resolvable with the GNSS stations’ coverage, and interpret their implications for seismic potential. Taken together, these studies show how geodesy can consistently constrain deformation, help explain tectonics, and inform seismic hazard assessment in the central Mediterranean.