Beyond the power to hurt: strategic culture and coercion by state powers in the 21st Century

This research looks at coercion exercised by state powers in the 21st century, investigating why and how states coerce the way they do. It departs from the argument that the differences in how states conceptualize and employ coercion cannot be explained by material capabilities or structural incentives alone, but are instead mediated by nationally embedded predispositions that inform how agents perceive threats, assess options, and select instruments of coercive statecraft. These predispositions are best explained by looking at strategic culture. The study develops an analytical framework that integrates Neoclassical Realism and Foreign Policy Analysis, positioning strategic culture as a key intervening variable linking systemic stimuli to coercive foreign policy decisions and outcomes. Methodologically, the research adopts a within-case, theory-evaluating design. It examines three purposively selected, non-Western, cases - Russia, Turkey, and India - over the period 2000 to 2020. The analysis provides that in Russia, cross-domain, “strategic deterrence” operates across a continuum of peace and war time; Turkey’s coercive posture reflects a hybrid strategic culture that leans towards unilateral actions and regionally driven assertiveness, while India’s enduring emphasis on restraint and legitimacy tempers escalation. Importantly, across the three cases, coercion emerges as a distinct and peculiar concept and exercise, rather than a purely homogeneous rational calculation of power. The thesis contributes to advancing the study of coercion, bridging the gap between materialist and ideational explanations of state behavior, and focusing on the process of coercion rather than its outcomes. It demonstrates that coercion is best understood through the interplay of external incentives, strategic culture, and agency. Empirically, it brings evidence from underexplored non-Western contexts. Ultimately, this research moves beyond the material ‘power to hurt’ to offer a more nuanced understanding of how states think about, design, and implement coercion in current international politics.