Micro and Macro essays in Applied Fiscal Policy

Gregori, Wildmer Daniel (2014) Micro and Macro essays in Applied Fiscal Policy, [Dissertation thesis], Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna. Dottorato di ricerca in Economia, 25 Ciclo. DOI 10.6092/unibo/amsdottorato/6508.
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This thesis analysis micro and macro aspect of applied fiscal policy issues. The first chapter investigates the extent to which local budget spending composition reacts to fiscal rules variations. I consider the budget of Italian municipalities and exploit specific changes in the Domestic Stability Pact’s rules, to perform a difference-in-discontinuities analysis. The results show that imposing a cap on the total amount of consumption and investment is not as binding as two caps, one for consumption and a different one for investment. More specifically, consumption is triggered by changes in wages and services spending, while investment relies on infrastructure movements. In addition, there is evidence that when an increase in investment is achieved, there is also a higher budget deficit level. The second chapter intends to analyze the extent to which fiscal policy shocks are able to affect macrovariables during business cycle fluctuations, differentiating among three intervention channels: public taxation, consumption and investment. The econometric methodology implemented is a Panel Vector Autoregressive model with a structural characterization. The results show that fiscal shocks have different multipliers in relation to expansion or contraction periods: output does not react during good times while there are significant effects in bad ones. The third chapter evaluates the effects of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the long-term sovereign bond spread of Italy relative to Germany. After collecting data on relevant fiscal policy announcements, we perform an econometric comparative analysis between the three cabinets that followed one another during the period 2009-2013. The results suggest that only fiscal policy announcements made by members of Monti’s cabinet have been effective in influencing significantly the Italian spread in the expected direction, revealing a remarkable credibility gap between Berlusconi’s and Letta’s governments with respect to Monti’s administration.

Tipologia del documento
Tesi di dottorato
Gregori, Wildmer Daniel
Dottorato di ricerca
Scuola di dottorato
Scienze economiche e statistiche
Settore disciplinare
Settore concorsuale
Parole chiave
Fiscal rules, Difference-in-discontinuities, Public spending, Consumption, Investment, Deficit, Italian Municipalities, Fiscal policy, Consumption, Investment, Panel VAR, EMU, Business cycle, Fiscal policy announcements, sovereign debt crisis, GARCH models
Data di discussione
9 Giugno 2014

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