Analysis of the long-term subsidence in the urban area of Bologna

Land subsidence in urban areas represents a widespread geological hazard and a pressing challenge for modern society. This research focuses on the subsidence process affecting the city of Bologna (Italy). Since the 1960s, Bologna has experienced ground deformation due to aquifers overexploitation that peaked during the 1970s with rates of 10 cm/year. Despite a general reduction in these rates over the subsequent decades, thanks to groundwater regulations policies, recent data underscore a substantial subsidence resurgence. To reconstruct the subsurface stratigraphic architecture of Bologna’s urban area and generate a 3D geological model, a multidisciplinary approach centred on a stratigraphic analysis relying on the lithofacies criterion was adopted. The convergence of the analyses within this framework resulted in partitioning the study area into three geological domains exhibiting unique morphological features and depositional stacking patterns. Subsequently, since long-term data are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of ongoing subsidence, a methodology was developed to generate cumulative ground displacement time series and maps by integrating ground-based and remotely-sensed measurements. While the reconstructed long-term subsidence field consistently aligns with the primary geological variations summarised in the 3D model, the generated cumulative displacement curves systematically match pluriannual trends observed in groundwater level and pumping monitoring data. Lastly, to evaluate the expression of the observed relationships from a geotechnical perspective, a series of one-dimensional subsidence calculations were conducted considering the mechanical properties of the investigated deposits and piezometric data. These analyses provided valuable insight into the overall mechanical behaviour of the existing soils, as well as the post-pumping groundwater level and pore pressure distributions, consistent with field data. The methodological approach employed enables a comprehensive analysis of land subsidence in urban areas, allowing the exploration of individual factors governing the deformation process and their interactions, even within complex stratigraphic and hydrogeological environments such as Bologna’s urban area.