The EU’s foreign policy towards the Western Balkans during the Juncker Commission. The cases of Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia.

In February 2018, four years after the President of the Commission Jean Claude Juncker explicitly deprioritised the enlargement dossier, the European Commission relaunched the enlargement strategy to the region of the Western Balkans. This occurred despite the persistent polarisation around the topic among the EU Member States and the still-present struggles, when not outright regression, of some of the countries in pursuing the demanded reforms. This thesis carries out a multilevel foreign policy analysis of EU foreign policy toward the region of the Western Balkans during the period of the Juncker Commission, through the cases of Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia. Drawing from Actorness theory (Bretherton and Vogler 2006), combined with perspectives from new institutional leadership (Smeets and Beach 2020), and new intergovernmentalism (Moravcsik 2018; Bickerton et al. 2015), this study seeks to explain the relaunch of enlargement by examining three dimensions: the international context and the role of non-EU actors such as China, Russia, and Turkey; the EU context, through the interaction of the significant EU Member States and Institutions; finally, the local context, through the analysis of the changes in the local perception of the EU and the considered non-EU actors. This study posits two interconnected points: first, that the changes in the international context, specifically the increased presence of non-EU actors such as China, Russia, and Turkey in the region, acted as triggering factors for the relaunch of the strategy. In addition, it argues that this relaunch was successful due to the peculiar combination of Germany’s interests and leadership within the Council, coupled with the Commission’s priorities.